Vietnam Box Office Data Map: From Lat Mat 8 to Detective Kien – What Is the Key to Leading the Game?

The Vietnamese film market is entering a period of explosive yet fiercely competitive growth. Data reveals an increasing polarization: a few “mega blockbusters” are pushing box office ceilings to unprecedented levels, while most other films struggle to survive in an ever-tougher arena. The market is now operating under a “winner-takes-all” model.

Amid this context, the recent April 30th box office showdown between Lat Mat 8 and Detective Kien has become a classic case study. Both achieved commercial success, yet each exposed two strategic challenges: a billion-dollar franchise must manage massive audience expectations, while an independent project must find a way to break through and become a cultural phenomenon.

The paradox lies here: although Lat Mat 8 generated 1.46 million online discussions – nearly three times more than Detective Kien – and held a dominant pre-release advantage, the final box office outcome told a different story. So, what truly determines a film’s staying power in theaters? This analysis uses social listening data to decode the real battle taking place in the minds of audiences and uncover strategic lessons for filmmakers and media professionals alike.

Disclaimer: This article focuses on analyzing audience feedback on the two films, aiming to provide additional insights for filmmakers and film marketing professionals. The analysis is based on publicly available discussions on social media and does not draw conclusions about the artistic quality of either film. 

Part 1 – The Landscape of the Vietnamese Film Market: “The Playground” of the Giants

To understand the pressure these two films face, let’s first look at the overall landscape of the Vietnamese film market for films earning over VND 60 billion (data source: Box Office Vietnam) from 2013 to the present:

• The Domination of the “Forces”: Two names, Tran Thanh and Ly Hai, are almost absolute powers, occupying the top revenue positions. Ly Hai is the “king” in terms of quantity and consistency, while Tran Thanh leads in average revenue per film. Victor Vu is also a notable figure with high-quality productions.
• The “Goldmine” Genre: The formula of combining Comedy + Psychological/Romance/Family elements is the surest way to create a blockbuster exceeding VND 100 billion. Films that touch on family emotions tend to earn higher and more sustained revenues.
• The Meteoric Rise of “Revenue Peaks”: In just the past 3–4 years, the earning potential of a successful Vietnamese film has surged. Before 2021, a VND 150–200 billion gross was considered a “super hit,” but with Bo Gia (>VND 400 billion), Nha Ba Nu (>VND 450 billion), and most recently Mai (>VND 520 billion), a new standard has been set. The “revenue ceiling” has been pushed 2–3 times higher.
• The “Winner-Takes-All” Polarization: The market has clearly split into three tiers: Mega Blockbusters (>VND 400 billion), Blockbusters (VND 100–300 billion), and Successful Films (VND 60–100 billion). While top-tier films increasingly earn more, the mid-tier revenues of the successful group have grown very slowly.

This context creates enormous pressure: major franchises like Lat Mat must break their own records, while new projects like Tham Tu Kien need to deliver an extraordinary boost to avoid being left behind.

Part 2 – Decoding the Paradox: Tracing the Contrasting Emotional Journeys of Lat Mat 8 vs. Tham Tu Kien

To decode this paradox, we will trace the audience’s emotional journey through three key stages: Awakening (pre-release), Experience (early screenings), and Amplification Effect (official release). Data on discussion volume, emotional indices, and audience feedback analysis are based on public social media discussions, collected via YouNet Media’s SocialHeat platform.

Stage 1: PRE-RELEASE – Awakening – The Promise Sent Out

This is the stage where both films set expectations in the minds of the audience. Data analyzes audience responses to the films during the pre-release phases, including casting announcements, filming starts, and content reveals.

• The promise of Lat Mat 8 is built on two pillars: emotional engagement from the Ly Hai brand and entertainment explosion from the “phenomenon Le Tuan Khang.” This promise targets mainstream audiences seeking a film that is easy to watch, funny, and relatable. However, pre-release data already indicated some cracks: while the overall emotional index was 0.59, the score for “Script & Storyline” was only 0.24, signaling underlying skepticism.
• Tham Tu Kien: The film started more quietly but focused on a single promise: a high-quality detective cinema experience. The mysterious “hooks” and trust in director Victor Vu established a strong expectation foundation, pushing the emotional index to extremely high levels—up to 1.0 during filming (with almost no negative discussions) and maintaining 0.75 overall pre-release.

Stage 2: EARLY SCREENINGS – Experience – The Moment of Truth Speaks

Early screenings are when audiences verify whether the film lives up to its promise, and their reactions diverged in two completely different directions. Data analyzes audience feedback on the two films during the early release periods: Tham Tu Kien (25–29/4/2025) and Lat Mat 8 (27–29/4/2025).

• Lat Mat 8 – “Half-Fulfilled Promise”: The film delivered on emotional engagement but failed to create a groundbreaking script. This caused significant disappointment, pushing the emotional index during early screenings to an alarming 0.16. An endless debate erupted between the “touched” camp and the “criticize the script” camp (for every 1.4 positive discussions, there was 1 negative discussion). At this point, measuring the number of Qualified Users showed that nearly 80% of all discussants were qualified users – actively engaging in substantive debate about the film, fueling a continuous argument.

* Qualified Users are defined as users with normal activity, without abnormal behaviors such as spamming, duplicating content, or unusually high interaction frequency.

• Tham Tu Kien – “Promise Exceeded Expectations”: The film not only met but far exceeded expectations. Keywords like “mind-blowing,” “epic plot twist,” and “worth it” exploded, pushing the emotional index to 0.77 during early screenings (7.7 positive discussions per 1 negative discussion). Aspects such as Visuals and Directing received near-perfect scores, showing high consensus on quality. This is where Tham Tu Kien’s “positive breakout point” emerged. Its heat is “convertible heat”, driven by a core audience with a clear intent to purchase tickets, with nearly 86% of discussants being high-quality users.

→ This clash created two raw “ingredients” for the word-of-mouth battle in the next stage: one side with DISAPPOINTMENT needing justification, and the other with SATISFACTION eager to spread.

Stage 3: OFFICIAL RELEASE – Amplification Effect – When Word of Mouth Determines “Sustainability”

This is when the “raw ingredients” from Stage 2 (Early Screenings) determine the sustainability of box office revenue. Follow the chart below to see the evolution of social media discussions alongside box office milestones. Revenue data are sourced from Box Office Vietnam.

• Lat Mat 8 – “Controversial Word of Mouth” Becomes a Drag: Intense debates about the script created a “resistance,” causing neutral audiences to hesitate and slowing revenue growth in the following weeks (only an additional VND 20 billion, compared to an easy VND 100 billion in the opening week). Although the emotional index improved to 0.3 during the official release (equivalent to 1.9 positive discussions per 1 negative discussion), emotional indices on film aspects such as Overall Quality (0.35), Script (0.54), Acting (0.42), and Affection for the Brand & Director (0.38) remained moderate. At this point, the proportion of high-quality discussants stayed at 75%, indicating substantive audience engagement.
• Tham Tu Kien – “Affirming Word of Mouth” Becomes a Lever: Consensus on the film’s quality turned audiences into enthusiastic “ambassadors” (84% of discussants were high-quality users). Positive word-of-mouth spread strongly, drawing new audience layers to theaters and driving spectacular revenue growth, ultimately surpassing Lat Mat 8’s earnings. The emotional index remained very high at 0.87, equivalent to 14.4 positive discussions for every 1 negative discussion.

As a result, the two films were completely “repositioned” in the audience’s minds after the official release.

Part 3: Effective Communication Formula for Vietnamese Films

From the case study above, this is not just a formula but a strategic loop that filmmakers can apply.

Stage 1: PRE-RELEASE – Listen to Position – Manage the “Promise”

• Objective: Create a clear, consistent, and achievable expectation.
• Formula:
  • Position the “Core Promise”: Identify the value the film will deliver to avoid expectation “cracks” like Lat Mat 8.
  • Build a Consistent “Key Hook”: Develop a system of communication key hooks (posters, teasers) to convey a consistent message, as Tham Tu Kien did.
  • Continuously Listen to Validate: Use social listening to “test” the promise, detect early audience skepticism, and adjust messaging promptly.

Stage 2: EARLY SCREENINGS – Listen to Optimize – Activate the “Breakout Point”

• Objective: Optimize the golden 48 hours after early screenings to shape the direction of word-of-mouth.
• Formula:
  • Early Screening Strategy: Focus on credible “nuclei” (expert reviewers, film group admins) to generate the first high-quality reviews.
  • Real-Time Listening: Immediately identify “high-value praise” and “core criticism.”
  • Activate Positive Breakout Points: Amplify core praises while preparing strategies to handle negative aspects.

Stage 3: OFFICIAL RELEASE – Listen to Navigate – Turn Audiences into Loyal Fans

• Objective: Proactively guide discussions instead of letting them drift.
• Formula:
  • Amplify Word-of-Mouth Leverage: Understand the deep emotional reasons why audiences share about the film and create content to focus its spread.
  • Balance Controversy: When debates arise, the goal is not to “win” but to end the conflict by steering public opinion, avoiding getting caught in confrontational arguments.
  • Maintain “Sustainability” at Theaters: Sustain revenue growth in the following weeks through continuous activities: organize cine-tours with the film crew, boost user-generated content (UGC), and release secondary media (music videos, behind-the-scenes) to keep the film at the center of discussion.

Conclusion: Three Golden Lessons for the Vietnamese Film Industry

The showdown between Lat Mat 8 and Tham Tu Kien offers a profound lesson on the maturation of the Vietnamese film market. From the data, three strategic lessons can be drawn:

1. Opening Revenue Is Driven by Communication, Total Revenue Depends on Film Quality: Media hype can fill theaters in the first week, but only an experience that exceeds expectations retains audiences and determines the long-term “sustainability” of the film.
2. Expectation Management Is Key for Major Brands: A strong brand faces pressure to innovate. If taking a different direction, it must proactively position a clear “promise” to avoid “breakpoints of trust” caused by misaligned expectations.
3. The Actual Quality of the Film Is the Strongest Communication Tool: For independent projects, creating a product good enough for audiences to voluntarily become “ambassadors” is the most effective way to turn quality into a commercial advantage.

Audiences are increasingly discerning, and the true power lies in their hands. Monitoring and measurement are not just about gauging “hotness,” but about listening and verifying whether your promise is being fulfilled in the minds of the audience – this is the key to sustainably winning both their hearts and wallets.

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Notes on Data Sources & Terminology

• Discussion Data: All public discussion data (volume of discussions, emotional indices, and related aspects) were collected and analyzed via YouNet Media’s SocialHeat platform.
• Terminology – Qualified Users: A Qualified User refers to an individual user without abnormal behaviors such as unusual posting frequency, content range, or content duplication on social media. This metric reflects the extent to which a film truly engages high-quality individual users in discussions. Contents From Qualified Users (CFQU), as defined by YouNet Group, refers to posts, comments, or shares created by these high-quality users.
• Revenue Data: Box office figures cited in this article are primarily sourced from Box Office Vietnam to ensure consistency and enable trend comparisons across films. These numbers may differ from those officially reported by the producers.